In this hand the straight-forward answer on 4th is just fold.
PokerStars Game #26909700473: Tournament #200904151, $40+$4 8-Game (Razz Limit) - Level XX (400/800) - 2009/04/09 17:24:19 ET
Table '200904151 138' 6-max
Seat 1: marty310 (12346 in chips)
Seat 2: bobvegàs (8476 in chips)
Seat 3: JackJoker (7932 in chips)
Seat 4: charly441 (13015 in chips)
Seat 5: brf007 (5428 in chips)
Seat 6: KidGrind61 (12594 in chips)
JackJoker: posts the ante 80
charly441: posts the ante 80
brf007: posts the ante 80
KidGrind61: posts the ante 80
marty310: posts the ante 80
bobvegàs: posts the ante 80
*** 3rd STREET ***
Dealt to marty310
Dealt to bobvegàs
Dealt to JackJoker
Dealt to charly441
Dealt to brf007
Dealt to KidGrind61
JackJoker: brings in for 120
charly441: calls 120
brf007: calls 120
KidGrind61: folds
marty310: folds
bobvegàs: folds
So I have no interest in this hand. I expected a raise somewhere and of course I insta-fold. But, no raise. A limp right behind me and another stragler.
*** 4th STREET ***
Dealt to JackJoker
Dealt to charly441
Dealt to brf007
charly441: bets 400
brf007: folds
Now I'm suspicious. He limped right behind the bring-in but this isn't usually a game where people get tricky and go for a limp-re-raise. So, if he had a great hand why limp behind and then come out firing? It seems most likely that he's just betting his board, which with my ten up and the other straggler catching a jack, is a good play. If he has 87 down, about the best I can hope for, I'm still 44%. I decided to take a card off and see if he bricked and if I catch.
JackJoker: calls 400
*** 5th STREET ***
Dealt to JackJoker
Dealt to charly441
charly441: bets 800
Not according to plan. I catch but so does he. If I put him 87 I know I'm a favorite because I'm drawing to a smooth 8, but I can't call one bet. If I call 5th I have to run this out and likely call 2400, not easy with my stack. The other problem is he could have a 9 made and be drawing to a 7 - I could improve and still lose. I didn't know the exact numbers at the time but I knew it wasn't good (I would be 31% if he's drawing to a 7). I decided to fold because I didn't want to call-off 2400 with my stack, and I felt like if I called here I had to commit to the hand.
JackJoker: folds
Uncalled bet (800) returned to charly441
charly441 collected 1640 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1640 | Rake 0
Seat 1: marty310 folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 2: bobvegàs folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Seat 3: JackJoker folded on the 5th Street
Seat 4: charly441 collected (1640)
Seat 5: brf007 folded on the 4th Street
Seat 6: KidGrind61 folded on the 3rd Street (didn't bet)
Probably the best play was just fold on fourth when he bet. He could be making a move but why would he limp after the bring-in with less than an 8-draw on third? Again, I'm a slight favorite if he has exactly 87 buried. If he manages to have one of the two remaining sixes I'm a three-to-one dog. By the numbers, I could take off a card and hope to hit my 8 and that he bricks hard. I didn't realize it at the time, but if I hit a 3,4,6, or 7 and he hits a ten or pairs (visibly or otherwise) then the hand is over and I have it won. Of course, I didn't realize that at the time, and in any event I had seen three of my outs folded already.



