We had nine players which was a decent turn-out for low-ball - and more than O8 last year. Although Jim Ricky Bobby played fast he could not race out of the tournament before Poor Sean. Sean got nicked early holding #3 against Tim's #2. Shortly after Hank made a crying call against Jim to knock him out and two players were gone before the first hour ended. All the way from Daytona and all Sean got was a feather on the turkey trophy - and a night of partying in Gainesville.
The table combined at seven and I got my first kill of the season knocking out Candy, who was focused on her newly minted HORSE chip from last season. Shelly was next after moving AI over Tim's raised. I then re-raised to shut Tim out of the pot and outdrew Shelley - SHELLEY! Next out was Tim to set up the bubble.
We played four-handed for a while - Bak can add a comment to tell you how he went out because I really don't remember. I may have had something to do with it. Three way Lee was short-stacked and finally moved-in over a Hank raise. I pussed out and threw away a pat-9 and both drew three times before Lee won with a Jack-low vs. Hank's Queen-low - and I missed a chance to knock another player out and cripple the last remaining. Lee battled hard but Hank eventually took him out and collected his second kill of the tourney (and season).
Heads-up lasted forever. We started with almost identical chip stacks and chopped the money, playing for a TOC seat. After building a chip-lead I decided to gamble on a nut-draw with one card to go against a pat-hand and missed. After being crippled I steadily built back up against a series of unplayable hands and we got close to even again. After being whittled down I decided to gamble with a two-card draw to a 65. Hank stood pat and I drew two useless cards. Hank revealed a 7-low as I look my last two cards - and hit the impossible draw - runner-runner 23. Me, Hank, and the Guitar Hero all threw up in our mouths a little bit, but mostly Hank. Lucking out like that made it easier to take getting knicked on the last hand - a 765 vs. a 764 was a more fitting end to a 90-minute heads-up match than drawing two on the end to a pair or something like that.
This is an interesting brain teaser because when I set up the counting problem I get an answer I know can't be right. Assume Hank has a 75 with a 3 and a 4 in his hand. My outs are three-4s, three-3s, and four-2s, but they have to come perfect-perfect. Keep in mind, I don't have 10 outs after drawing that first card because if I catch an out first the rest of those become pair cards and I lose them - see, this is tricky. I think I know the answer but I had to rig it and couldn't set it up as a counting problem. Probably only Bak has a chance of figuring this out but if you do post it.
1 comment:
A lot of it depends on how many cards you use as still being live.
52
minus 5 in Hank's hank
minus 3 in your hand
minus 4 Mike has drawn and discarded
(not subtracting Hank's discards, since you don't know what they were anyway)
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That leaves 40 cards to play with -- which includes four 2s, three 3s, and three 4s. = 10.
It's basically three separate problems, since, as you said, once you hit a card, the other same cards become non-outs.
If you hit a deuce first:
It's 4/40 or 0.1 to hit a deuce.
Afterwards, you have to hit a 3 or 4, which is 6/39 = 0.1539
Multiply those together = 0.01539
That's the chances of getting a deuce first, then a 3 or 4. We need to add the probabilities of getting a 3 or 4 first, then hitting a 2.
To hit a 3 , it's 3/40 or 0.075.
Afterwards, you can hit 4 deuces, or 3 fours. 7/39 = 0.1795.
Multiplying - 0.075 x 0.1795 = 0.01346
Since there are the same # of 4s as there are 3s, the calculations are the same for if you get the 4 first.
So.. adding up all the individual probabilities:
0.01539
0.01346
0.01346
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0.04231 = 4.231%
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When I went out, I had an 8 against you, Mike, and you hit better on the last draw.
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